Arouca vs Estoril Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Mon 6 Apr, 19:45
Arouca
32 Full time
Estoril
Arouca 3–2 Estoril

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 28%
Away 39%

💡 Estoril have a slight edge — leaning Estoril, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 41.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1449 v 1514 Estoril rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Arouca v Estoril

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Why we predict this

  • Estoril is the stronger side on Power Rating (1514 vs 1449).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.3 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Estoril
Form Index
Estoril
Goal expectation
Estoril
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Estoril. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaWLLLW1.2 ppg
EstorilWLDWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1449
Estoril1514
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 22% · 50%
Power Rating37% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning14% · 39% · 48%

AI match preview

Arouca hosts Estoril in a Primeira Liga clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 39%, with a 33% chance for a home victory and 28% for a draw. The expected goals tally suggests an open game, with 1.72 for Arouca and 2.29 for Estoril, making a 1-2 scoreline the most probable outcome. With a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and 75% likelihood of both teams scoring, this match promises attacking action, though all projections are statistical and not guarantees—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.72 – 2.29

Most likely score

1-2

8% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 76%

Under 24%

Both teams to score

Yes 75%

No 25%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Arouca 3–2 Estoril
Nov 2025 Estoril 4–3 Arouca