Estrela vs Sp Lisbon Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 11 Apr, 21:30
Estrela
01 Full time
Sp Lisbon
Estrela 0–1 Sp Lisbon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (73%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 9%
Draw 18%
Away 73%

💡 Sp Lisbon are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 88.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 88.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1426 v 1710 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index 1.0 v 2.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Estrela v Sp Lisbon

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Why we predict this

  • Sp Lisbon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1710 vs 1426).
  • Sp Lisbon is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Estrela

Green = favours Estrela · Blue = favours Sp Lisbon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
EstrelaDDLWL1.0 ppg
Sp LisbonWWDWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Estrela1426
Sp Lisbon1710
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model10% · 18% · 72%
Power Rating19% · 12% · 69%
Machine-learning1% · 31% · 69%

AI match preview

Estrela face a tough challenge at home against SP Lisbon, with the model giving just a 9% chance of a home win compared to a 73% probability for an away victory. The expected goals tally favors SP Lisbon significantly, projected at 2.50 against Estrela's 0.88, and the most likely scoreline is a 0-2 win for the visitors. With a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability of both teams scoring, this match promises attacking action, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.88 – 2.50

Most likely score

0-2

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 66%

Under 34%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Estrela 0–1 Sp Lisbon
Nov 2025 Sp Lisbon 4–0 Estrela