Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 12 Apr, 16:30
Alverca
31 Full time
Casa Pia
Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (47%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 47%
Draw 28%
Away 25%

💡 Alverca are favourites — about 47 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 52.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 52.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1455 v 1424 Alverca rated higher
Form Index DDDLW v LDDLD Alverca 1.2 · Casa Pia 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alverca v Casa Pia

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1455 vs 1424).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Alverca
Form Index
Alverca
Goal expectation
Alverca
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Casa Pia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaDDDLW1.2 ppg
Casa PiaLDDLD0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1455
Casa Pia1424
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 33% · 27%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning45% · 33% · 23%

AI match preview

Alverca holds a slight edge with a 47% chance of securing a home win against Casa Pia, though the model indicates a closely contested match with a 28% draw probability. Expected goals suggest a narrow margin, with 1.16 for Alverca and 0.92 for Casa Pia, pointing to a likely tight scoreline around 1-1. With modest probabilities for over 2.5 goals (35%) and both teams scoring (43%), fans can anticipate a competitive encounter; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.16 – 0.92

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 35%

Under 65%

Both teams to score

Yes 43%

No 57%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia
Nov 2025 Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca