Arouca vs Estrela Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 19 Apr, 16:30
Arouca
10 Full time
Estrela
Arouca 1–0 Estrela

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 28%
Away 28%

💡 Arouca have a slight edge — leaning Arouca, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1455 v 1422 Arouca rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1455 vs 1422).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Arouca
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Arouca
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Estrela. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaLLWWL1.2 ppg
EstrelaDLWLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1455
Estrela1422
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 26% · 30%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning36% · 34% · 30%

AI match preview

Arouca hosts Estrela in a closely matched Primeira Liga encounter, with the model giving the home side a slight edge at 44% to claim victory. Expected goals suggest a tight game, around 1.80 for Arouca and 1.46 for Estrela, aligning with the most likely 1-1 scoreline, while there’s a strong chance for goals as over 2.5 and both teams to score sit above 60%. These projections highlight probabilities rather than certainties—please enjoy the match responsibly and gamble only if you’re 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.46

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 65%

No 35%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Arouca 1–0 Estrela
Dec 2025 Estrela 3–1 Arouca