Sp Lisbon vs Benfica Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 19 Apr, 19:15
Sp Lisbon
12 Full time
Benfica
Sp Lisbon 1–2 Benfica

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (49%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 49%
Draw 26%
Away 25%

💡 Sp Lisbon are favourites — about 49 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 55.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1715 v 1678 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 2.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Sp Lisbon v Benfica

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1715 vs 1678).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Sp Lisbon

Green = favours Sp Lisbon · Blue = favours Benfica. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Sp LisbonWDWWW2.6 ppg
BenficaDWWDW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Sp Lisbon1715
Benfica1678
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model47% · 31% · 22%
Power Rating53% · 18% · 29%
Machine-learning52% · 31% · 17%

AI match preview

In this Primeira Liga clash, Sporting Lisbon hold a slight edge with a 49% chance of securing a home win, while Benfica trails closely at 25%, and a draw stands at 26%. The model projects a tight contest with an expected goal tally favoring the hosts 1.37 to 0.86, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline despite the home win pick. With just a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance both teams score, this matchup could hinge on a few key moments—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.37 – 0.86

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Sp Lisbon 1–2 Benfica
Dec 2025 Benfica 1–1 Sp Lisbon