Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Mon 20 Apr, 21:15
Moreirense
10 Full time
Estoril
Moreirense 1–0 Estoril

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 27%
Away 39%

💡 Estoril have a slight edge — leaning Estoril, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 41.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1458 v 1492 Estoril rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1458 vs 1492).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Estoril
Form Index
Estoril
Goal expectation
Estoril
Home advantage
Moreirense

Green = favours Moreirense · Blue = favours Estoril. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MoreirenseDLLLD0.4 ppg
EstorilDWLLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Moreirense1458
Estoril1492
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 26% · 41%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning24% · 30% · 46%

AI match preview

Moreirense and Estoril face off in a closely matched Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 39% probability. The expected goals suggest a competitive game, with a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline and a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is projected at 66%. These statistical projections highlight an open contest, but remember to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.74

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 66%

No 34%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Moreirense 1–0 Estoril
Dec 2025 Estoril 3–3 Moreirense