Alverca vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Fri 24 Apr, 21:15
Alverca
21 Full time
Arouca
Alverca 2–1 Arouca

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 27%
Away 31%

💡 Alverca have a slight edge — leaning Alverca, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1457 v 1463 Arouca rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1457 vs 1463).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Alverca
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Arouca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaDLWWL1.4 ppg
AroucaLWWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1457
Arouca1463
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model40% · 29% · 31%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning39% · 28% · 33%

AI match preview

Alverca hosts Arouca in a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model favoring a home win at 42% probability but also suggesting a draw or away victory are well within reach. Expected goals are tight, 1.43 for Alverca and 1.24 for Arouca, pointing towards a competitive match that could easily end 1-1, the most likely scoreline. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 56% probability of both teams scoring, fans should anticipate an open game, though these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.24

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Alverca 2–1 Arouca
Dec 2025 Arouca 1–0 Alverca