Sp Lisbon vs Tondela Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Wed 29 Apr, 21:15
Sp Lisbon
22 Full time
Tondela
Sp Lisbon 2–2 Tondela

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (87%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 87%
Draw 8%
Away 4%

💡 Sp Lisbon are strong favourites — roughly 9 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1693 v 1371 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index 2 v 0.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Sp Lisbon v Tondela

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Why we predict this

  • Sp Lisbon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1693 vs 1371).
  • Sp Lisbon is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Sp Lisbon

Green = favours Sp Lisbon · Blue = favours Tondela. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Sp LisbonWWWLD2 ppg
TondelaDLDLL0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Sp Lisbon1693
Tondela1371
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model92% · 7% · 2%
Power Rating80% · 12% · 9%
Machine-learning98% · 1% · 1%

AI match preview

Sp Lisbon are strong favorites to secure a home victory against Tondela, with the model giving them an 87% chance of winning and projecting a dominant 3-0 scoreline. The expected goals heavily favor the hosts at 3.56 compared to just 0.45 for the visitors, suggesting a convincing offensive display. While a high-scoring game is likely with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring is less probable at 36%. Remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.56 – 0.45

Most likely score

3-0

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 76%

Under 24%

Both teams to score

Yes 36%

No 64%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Sp Lisbon 2–2 Tondela
Oct 2025 Tondela 0–3 Sp Lisbon