Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 2 May, 16:30
Arouca
22 Full time
Santa Clara
Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Draw (30%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 36%
Draw 30%
Away 33%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1453 v 1448 Arouca rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1453 vs 1448).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Arouca
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Santa Clara. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaWWLWL1.8 ppg
Santa ClaraWLLDW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1453
Santa Clara1448
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 29% · 34%
Power Rating48% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning29% · 42% · 29%

AI match preview

Arouca and Santa Clara are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model suggesting a narrow edge to the home side but a draw remains the most probable outcome at 30% confidence. Both teams are expected to score, with a 57% chance of BTTS and a balanced expected goals tally of 1.39 to 1.31, hinting at a tight 1-1 scoreline. Over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 51%, emphasizing the potential for an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.31

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara
Dec 2025 Santa Clara 0–0 Arouca