Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 3 May, 16:30
Casa Pia
01 Full time
Tondela
Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 28%
Away 29%

💡 Casa Pia have a slight edge — leaning Casa Pia, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1397 v 1380 Casa Pia rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 0.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Casa Pia v Tondela

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1397 vs 1380).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Casa Pia
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Casa Pia
Home advantage
Casa Pia

Green = favours Casa Pia · Blue = favours Tondela. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Casa PiaDLDLL0.4 ppg
TondelaLDLLD0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Casa Pia1397
Tondela1380
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model47% · 28% · 25%
Power Rating50% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning39% · 32% · 29%

AI match preview

Casa Pia holds a slight edge with a 43% chance to claim victory against Tondela, who are pegged at 29%, while a draw is also a strong possibility at 28%. The model forecasts a closely contested match with an expected goals tally of 1.57 for Casa Pia and 1.11 for Tondela, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% likelihood that both teams will score, fans can anticipate an engaging encounter; remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.11

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela
Dec 2025 Tondela 1–2 Casa Pia