Alverca vs Estoril Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 10 May, 21:30
Alverca
11 Full time
Estoril
Alverca 1–1 Estoril

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Draw (30%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 30%
Away 36%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 36.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 36.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1477 Estoril rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1463 vs 1477).
  • Alverca is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Estoril
Form Index
Alverca
Goal expectation
Estoril
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Estoril. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaWWLWL1.8 ppg
EstorilLLLLD0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1463
Estoril1477
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model31% · 27% · 43%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning19% · 51% · 31%

AI match preview

Alverca and Estoril are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 36%, while a draw holds a 30% probability and is our pick with moderate confidence. The expected goals suggest a tight match with an anticipated 1-1 scoreline, supported by a 61% chance both teams will score and a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. These projections are statistical estimates and should be considered carefully—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.64

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 58%

Under 42%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Alverca 1–1 Estoril
Dec 2025 Estoril 4–1 Alverca