Rio Ave vs Sp Lisbon Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Mon 11 May, 21:15
Rio Ave
14 Full time
Sp Lisbon
Rio Ave 1–4 Sp Lisbon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (73%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 9%
Draw 18%
Away 73%

💡 Sp Lisbon are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 88.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 88.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1435 v 1692 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index 1 v 1.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Rio Ave v Sp Lisbon

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Why we predict this

  • Sp Lisbon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1692 vs 1435).
  • Sp Lisbon is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Rio Ave

Green = favours Rio Ave · Blue = favours Sp Lisbon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Rio AveLWDLD1 ppg
Sp LisbonWLDDW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Rio Ave1435
Sp Lisbon1692
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model6% · 16% · 77%
Power Rating22% · 12% · 66%
Machine-learning1% · 40% · 60%

AI match preview

Rio Ave face a tough challenge at home against Sp Lisbon, who are strongly favored with a 73% chance of victory according to the model. The expected goals suggest Sp Lisbon could net around 2.5 times, while Rio Ave might struggle to score more than 0.6, making a 0-2 scoreline the most likely outcome. With a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals, fans might see a lively encounter, but remember these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.63 – 2.49

Most likely score

0-2

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Rio Ave 1–4 Sp Lisbon
Dec 2025 Sp Lisbon 4–0 Rio Ave