Arouca vs Tondela Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 16 May, 19:00
Arouca
31 Full time
Tondela
Arouca 3–1 Tondela

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 24%
Away 33%

💡 Arouca have a slight edge — leaning Arouca, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1474 v 1410 Arouca rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Arouca is the stronger side on Power Rating (1474 vs 1410).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.9 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Arouca
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Arouca
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Tondela. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaLWLDW1.4 ppg
TondelaLLDWW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1474
Tondela1410
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 25% · 24%
Power Rating57% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning53% · 24% · 22%

AI match preview

Arouca hosts Tondela in a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model favoring a home win at 42% probability, though a draw or away victory remains well within reach. Expected goals suggest a moderate scoring affair, with 1.88 for Arouca and 1.26 for Tondela, aligning with the most likely 1-1 scoreline. With over 2.5 goals and both teams to score probabilities hovering around 60%, fans can anticipate an engaging match, but remember these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 61%

Under 39%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Arouca 3–1 Tondela
Jan 2026 Tondela 3–1 Arouca