Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 16 May, 19:00
Casa Pia
11 Full time
Rio Ave
Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 28%
Away 29%

💡 Casa Pia have a slight edge — leaning Casa Pia, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1400 v 1425 Rio Ave rated higher
Form Index 0.8 v 1 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1400 vs 1425).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Rio Ave
Form Index
Rio Ave
Goal expectation
Rio Ave
Home advantage
Casa Pia

Green = favours Casa Pia · Blue = favours Rio Ave. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Casa PiaDLLLW0.8 ppg
Rio AveWDLDL1 ppg
Power Rating
Casa Pia1400
Rio Ave1425
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 30% · 38%
Power Rating43% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning30% · 36% · 34%

AI match preview

Casa Pia hosts Rio Ave in a closely matched Primeira Liga encounter where the home side holds a slight edge with a 43% chance of victory. Both teams are projected to score, with a 55% probability for BTTS and an expected tight scoreline around 1-1. While under 2.5 goals is marginally favored, these statistical projections highlight the game's competitive balance—please remember to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.37

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave
Jan 2026 Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia