Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 16 May, 19:00
Nacional
20 Full time
Guimaraes
Nacional 2–0 Guimaraes

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 29%
Away 29%

💡 Nacional have a slight edge — leaning Nacional, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1429 v 1459 Guimaraes rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Nacional v Guimaraes

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1429 vs 1459).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Guimaraes
Form Index
Guimaraes
Goal expectation
Nacional
Home advantage
Nacional

Green = favours Nacional · Blue = favours Guimaraes. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NacionalLWWLL1.2 ppg
GuimaraesDWWLL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Nacional1429
Guimaraes1459
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model50% · 28% · 22%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning26% · 38% · 36%

AI match preview

Nacional holds a slight advantage at 42% to claim victory against Guimaraes, who share a 29% chance alongside the draw outcome. The model projects a modest goal tally with an expected 1.63 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate a competitive encounter—remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.02

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Nacional 2–0 Guimaraes
Jan 2026 Guimaraes 2–1 Nacional