Almeria vs Valencia Prediction

La Liga 22/23 · Sun 9 Apr, 18:30
Almeria
21 Full time
Valencia
Almeria 2–1 Valencia

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 29%
Away 34%

💡 Almeria have a slight edge — leaning Almeria, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1432 v 1450 Valencia rated higher
Form Index 1.0 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1432 vs 1450).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Valencia
Form Index
Valencia
Goal expectation
Almeria
Home advantage
Almeria

Green = favours Almeria · Blue = favours Valencia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlmeriaWLLDD1.0 ppg
ValenciaWLWLD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Almeria1432
Valencia1450
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model53% · 29% · 18%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 33%
Machine-learning41% · 38% · 21%

AI match preview

Almeria and Valencia are set for a closely contested La Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 37% probability, while a draw and away win stand at 29% and 34% respectively. The expected goals suggest Almeria may edge the scoring with 1.54 expected goals against Valencia’s 0.81, but the most likely scoreline remains a 1-1 draw. With an under 50% chance for both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, this match could be tight and tactically cautious; remember these are statistical projections and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.81

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Almeria 2–1 Valencia
Jan 2023 Valencia 2–2 Almeria