Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga 22/23 · Wed 3 May, 19:30
Valencia
11 Full time
Villarreal
Valencia 1–1 Villarreal

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 26%
Away 39%

💡 Villarreal have a slight edge — leaning Villarreal, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1439 v 1555 Villarreal rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Valencia v Villarreal

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Why we predict this

  • Villarreal is the stronger side on Power Rating (1555 vs 1439).
  • Villarreal is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Villarreal
Form Index
Villarreal
Goal expectation
Valencia
Home advantage
Valencia

Green = favours Valencia · Blue = favours Villarreal. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ValenciaLLWWL1.2 ppg
VillarrealWLLWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Valencia1439
Villarreal1555
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 32% · 32%
Power Rating33% · 22% · 45%
Machine-learning29% · 14% · 57%

AI match preview

Valencia and Villarreal face off in a tightly contested La Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 39% probability, while a home win sits at 35%. The expected goals are closely matched (1.18 for Valencia and 1.11 for Villarreal), suggesting a competitive game likely to end in a 1-1 draw, though a narrow away win is the most favored single outcome. With just a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and 48% probability for both teams to score, this match could be a closely fought battle—remember, these are statistical projections; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.11

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 40%

Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Mestalla Valencia, Spain Capacity 49,430 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Valencia 1–1 Villarreal
Dec 2022 Villarreal 2–1 Valencia