Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction

La Liga 22/23 · Sun 21 May, 18:30
Valencia
10 Full time
Real Madrid
Valencia 1–0 Real Madrid

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (52%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 26%
Draw 22%
Away 52%

💡 Real Madrid are favourites — about 52 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 59.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 59.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1454 v 1618 Real Madrid rated higher
Form Index 2 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Real Madrid is the stronger side on Power Rating (1618 vs 1454).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Real Madrid
Form Index
Valencia
Goal expectation
Real Madrid
Home advantage
Valencia

Green = favours Valencia · Blue = favours Real Madrid. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ValenciaWWLDW2 ppg
Real MadridWLWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Valencia1454
Real Madrid1618
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model26% · 29% · 46%
Power Rating30% · 18% · 52%
Machine-learning13% · 7% · 81%

AI match preview

Valencia face a tough challenge at home against Real Madrid, who hold a 52% chance of victory according to the model, with a confidence level of 59/100. While the expected goals suggest a competitive encounter (1.09 for Valencia, 1.52 for Real Madrid), the most likely score remains a balanced 1-1 draw. With a 48% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance both teams will score, this match could see moments of attacking action; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.52

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 48%

Under 52%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Mestalla Valencia, Spain Capacity 49,430 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Valencia 1–0 Real Madrid
Feb 2023 Real Madrid 2–0 Valencia