Valencia vs Ath Bilbao Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sat 20 Jan, 17:30
Valencia
10 Full time
Ath Bilbao
Valencia 1–0 Ath Bilbao

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (33%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 30%
Draw 33%
Away 37%

💡 Our model leans towards a draw (33%) — expect a tight one.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 38.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1524 v 1604 Ath Bilbao rated higher
Form Index LDWWW v DWWWW Valencia 2.0 · Ath Bilbao 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Valencia v Ath Bilbao

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Why we predict this

  • Ath Bilbao is the stronger side on Power Rating (1604 vs 1524).
  • Ath Bilbao is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 2.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ath Bilbao
Form Index
Ath Bilbao
Goal expectation
Valencia
Home advantage
Valencia

Green = favours Valencia · Blue = favours Ath Bilbao. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ValenciaLDWWW2.0 ppg
Ath BilbaoDWWWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Valencia1524
Ath Bilbao1604
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 38% · 25%
Power Rating36% · 26% · 39%
Machine-learning21% · 48% · 32%

AI match preview

Valencia host Ath Bilbao in a tightly poised La Liga clash where the model gives a slight edge to the visitors with a 37% chance of winning, while a draw is also a strong possibility at 33%. Both teams are expected to produce a low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline predicted as 0-0 and a modest 23% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals. Given these projections, fans should anticipate a cautious encounter, and remember to gamble responsibly (18+), as these are statistical probabilities, not certainties.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.95 – 0.72

Most likely score

0-0

21% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 23%

Under 77%

Both teams to score

Yes 33%

No 67%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

ValenciaAth Bilbao
4.4 Corners 5.5
2.0 Cards 2.1
12.1 Fouls 13.3

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Mestalla Valencia, Spain Capacity 49,430 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Valencia 1–0 Ath Bilbao
Oct 2023 Ath Bilbao 2–2 Valencia