Real Madrid vs Almeria Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sun 21 Jan, 15:15
Real Madrid
32 Full time
Almeria
Real Madrid 3–2 Almeria

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (87%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 87%
Draw 9%
Away 4%

💡 Real Madrid are strong favourites — roughly 9 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1650 v 1367 Real Madrid rated higher
Form Index WDWWW v LDLLD Real Madrid 2.6 · Almeria 0.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Real Madrid is the stronger side on Power Rating (1650 vs 1367).
  • Real Madrid is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Real Madrid
Form Index
Real Madrid
Goal expectation
Real Madrid
Home advantage
Real Madrid

Green = favours Real Madrid · Blue = favours Almeria. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Real MadridWDWWW2.6 ppg
AlmeriaLDLLD0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Real Madrid1650
Almeria1367
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model90% · 8% · 2%
Power Rating78% · 12% · 11%
Machine-learning99% · 1% · 0%

AI match preview

Real Madrid are strong favorites to secure a home win against Almeria, with the model assigning an 87% probability and a projected scoreline of 3-0. The expected goals heavily favor the hosts at 3.40 compared to just 0.51 for the visitors, while there's a 75% chance the match will feature over 2.5 goals. While both teams scoring is less likely at 39%, these projections highlight probable outcomes based on current data—always remember to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.40 – 0.51

Most likely score

3-0

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 75%

Under 25%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 38+ matches)

Real MadridAlmeria
6.1 Corners 4.4
1.8 Cards 2.5
9.5 Fouls 12.5

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Santiago Bernabeu Madrid, Spain Capacity 78,297 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Real Madrid 3–2 Almeria
Aug 2023 Almeria 1–3 Real Madrid