Almeria vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Fri 26 Jan, 20:00
Almeria
03 Full time
Alaves
Almeria 0–3 Alaves

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (32%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 30%
Draw 32%
Away 38%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 39.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1365 v 1463 Alaves rated higher
Form Index DLLDL v LLDWW Almeria 0.4 · Alaves 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Alaves is the stronger side on Power Rating (1463 vs 1365).
  • Alaves is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Alaves
Form Index
Alaves
Goal expectation
Alaves
Home advantage
Almeria

Green = favours Almeria · Blue = favours Alaves. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlmeriaDLLDL0.4 ppg
AlavesLLDWW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Almeria1365
Alaves1463
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 32% · 36%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning12% · 45% · 43%

AI match preview

Almeria and Alaves are projected to battle closely in this La Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to an away win at 38%, though a draw is also a strong possibility at 32%. The expected goals are nearly even, suggesting a tight contest likely to produce around two goals, with 1-1 as the most probable scoreline. With under 2.5 goals favored and both teams scoring less than a 50% chance, this match could hinge on fine margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.16

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 38+ matches)

AlmeriaAlaves
4.4 Corners 4.9
2.5 Cards 2.6
12.5 Fouls 14.6

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Almeria 0–3 Alaves
Nov 2023 Alaves 1–0 Almeria