Alaves vs Barcelona Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sat 3 Feb, 17:30
Alaves
13 Full time
Barcelona
Alaves 1–3 Barcelona

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (48%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 24%
Draw 28%
Away 48%

💡 Barcelona are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 53.7/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 53.7
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1481 v 1582 Barcelona rated higher
Form Index LDWWW v WWWLW Alaves 2.0 · Barcelona 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Barcelona is the stronger side on Power Rating (1582 vs 1481).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Barcelona
Form Index
Barcelona
Goal expectation
Barcelona
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Barcelona. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesLDWWW2.0 ppg
BarcelonaWWWLW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1481
Barcelona1582
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model23% · 28% · 49%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning14% · 38% · 48%

AI match preview

Alaves host Barcelona in a La Liga clash where the visitors hold a 48% chance of victory, though a draw at 28% remains a strong possibility. The model projects a tight contest with an expected scoreline around 1-1, supported by moderate goal expectations (1.07 for Alaves and 1.65 for Barcelona). With over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, fans can anticipate an engaging match, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.65

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

AlavesBarcelona
4.9 Corners 6.7
2.6 Cards 1.9
14.6 Fouls 10.0

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2024 Alaves 1–3 Barcelona
Nov 2023 Barcelona 2–1 Alaves