Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sun 17 Mar, 15:15
Villarreal
10 Full time
Valencia
Villarreal 1–0 Valencia

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 28%
Away 30%

💡 Villarreal have a slight edge — leaning Villarreal, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1503 v 1522 Valencia rated higher
Form Index DDWWW v WLDDW Villarreal 2.2 · Valencia 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Villarreal v Valencia

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1503 vs 1522).
  • Villarreal is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Valencia
Form Index
Villarreal
Goal expectation
Villarreal
Home advantage
Villarreal

Green = favours Villarreal · Blue = favours Valencia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
VillarrealDDWWW2.2 ppg
ValenciaWLDDW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Villarreal1503
Valencia1522
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 24% · 29%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning33% · 37% · 31%

AI match preview

Villarreal holds a slight edge over Valencia with a 42% chance of securing a home win, while a draw and away victory remain plausible at 28% and 30%, respectively. The model forecasts a competitive clash with an expected goal tally favoring Villarreal (1.93) over Valencia (1.52), making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and 68% chance both teams scoring, this encounter promises attacking action, though all projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.52

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 67%

Under 33%

Both teams to score

Yes 68%

No 32%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Estadio de la Ceramica Villarreal, Spain Capacity 23,500 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2024 Villarreal 1–0 Valencia
Jan 2024 Valencia 3–1 Villarreal