Girona vs Barcelona Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sat 4 May, 18:30
Girona
42 Full time
Barcelona
Girona 4–2 Barcelona

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 28%
Away 35%

💡 Girona have a slight edge — leaning Girona, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1615 v 1649 Barcelona rated higher
Form Index LWLWW v WWWLW Girona 1.8 · Barcelona 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1615 vs 1649).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Barcelona
Form Index
Barcelona
Goal expectation
Girona
Home advantage
Girona

Green = favours Girona · Blue = favours Barcelona. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GironaLWLWW1.8 ppg
BarcelonaWWWLW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Girona1615
Barcelona1649
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 24% · 32%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning37% · 43% · 20%

AI match preview

Girona host Barcelona in a closely matched La Liga fixture where the model slightly favors a home win at 37%, with a draw at 28% and an away win at 35%. Expected goals suggest a tight contest (1.95 for Girona vs. 1.66 for Barcelona), with a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline. The game is also projected to be high-scoring, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 71% likelihood of both teams scoring; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.66

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 70%

Under 30%

Both teams to score

Yes 71%

No 29%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Estadi Montilivi Girona, Spain Capacity 14,624 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2024 Girona 4–2 Barcelona
Dec 2023 Barcelona 2–4 Girona