Valencia vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga 23/24 · Sun 5 May, 18:30
Valencia
01 Full time
Alaves
Valencia 0–1 Alaves

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (49%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 49%
Draw 29%
Away 22%

💡 Valencia are favourites — about 49 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 54.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 54.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1507 v 1465 Valencia rated higher
Form Index DWWLL v LLLWW Valencia 1.4 · Alaves 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Valencia v Alaves

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Valencia is the stronger side on Power Rating (1507 vs 1465).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Valencia
Form Index
Valencia
Goal expectation
Valencia
Home advantage
Valencia

Green = favours Valencia · Blue = favours Alaves. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ValenciaDWWLL1.4 ppg
AlavesLLLWW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Valencia1507
Alaves1465
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model50% · 36% · 14%
Power Rating54% · 17% · 29%
Machine-learning61% · 29% · 10%

AI match preview

Valencia are favored to edge out Alaves with a 49% chance of victory, supported by expected goals of 1.11 to 0.47, though a draw remains a plausible outcome at 29%. The model suggests a low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline surprisingly pegged at 0-0 and only a 21% probability of over 2.5 goals. While a home win is the pick, the confidence level sits at a moderate 54 out of 100, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this La Liga clash—please remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.47

Most likely score

0-0

22% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 21%

Under 79%

Both teams to score

Yes 26%

No 74%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

Mestalla Valencia, Spain Capacity 49,430 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2024 Valencia 0–1 Alaves
Sept 2023 Alaves 1–0 Valencia