Alaves vs Celta Prediction

La Liga 24/25 · Mon 27 Jan, 20:00
Alaves
11 Full time
Celta
Alaves 1–1 Celta

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 28%
Away 29%

💡 Alaves have a slight edge — leaning Alaves, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1461 v 1473 Celta rated higher
Form Index DDDLW v WLWLL Alaves 1.2 · Celta 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1461 vs 1473).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Celta
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Alaves
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Celta. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesDDDLW1.2 ppg
CeltaWLWLL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1461
Celta1473
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 28% · 26%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning46% · 26% · 28%

AI match preview

Alaves and Celta face off in a La Liga clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 43% chance of victory, according to model projections. The expected goals favor Alaves at 1.61 compared to Celta’s 1.18, but a 1-1 draw remains the most probable scoreline. With both teams likely to find the net and a modest 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, this match promises competitive action—remember, these are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.18

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 53%

Under 47%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 114+ matches)

AlavesCelta
4.9 Corners 4.2
2.6 Cards 2.0
14.6 Fouls 12.0

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Alaves 1–1 Celta
Aug 2024 Celta 2–1 Alaves