Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga 24/25 · Sat 8 Mar, 15:15
Alaves
10 Full time
Villarreal
Alaves 1–0 Villarreal

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 30%
Draw 29%
Away 41%

💡 Villarreal have a slight edge — leaning Villarreal, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 44.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1435 v 1567 Villarreal rated higher
Form Index LLDLD v DWWDW Alaves 0.4 · Villarreal 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alaves v Villarreal

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Why we predict this

  • Villarreal is the stronger side on Power Rating (1567 vs 1435).
  • Villarreal is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Villarreal
Form Index
Villarreal
Goal expectation
Villarreal
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Villarreal. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesLLDLD0.4 ppg
VillarrealDWWDW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1435
Villarreal1567
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model20% · 31% · 49%
Power Rating32% · 21% · 47%
Machine-learning31% · 33% · 37%

AI match preview

Alaves host Villarreal in a La Liga clash where the away side holds a 41% chance of victory, slightly edging out a home win or draw. With expected goals favoring Villarreal at 1.41 to 0.82 and a most likely scoreline of 1-1, the match could see competitive exchanges but not necessarily a high-scoring affair—over 2.5 goals has just a 39% probability. These projections are statistical estimates and should be considered with caution; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.82 – 1.41

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2025 Alaves 1–0 Villarreal
Nov 2024 Villarreal 3–0 Alaves