Alaves vs Sociedad Prediction

La Liga 24/25 · Wed 23 Apr, 21:30
Alaves
10 Full time
Sociedad
Alaves 1–0 Sociedad

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (31%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 31%
Away 31%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 40.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1440 v 1473 Sociedad rated higher
Form Index DLWLD v DWWLD Alaves 1.0 · Sociedad 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1440 vs 1473).
  • Sociedad is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sociedad
Form Index
Sociedad
Goal expectation
Sociedad
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Sociedad. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesDLWLD1.0 ppg
SociedadDWWLD1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1440
Sociedad1473
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model26% · 38% · 36%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning41% · 28% · 31%

AI match preview

Alaves and Sociedad are set for a closely contested La Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 38%, but a draw is the most probable outcome at 31% confidence. Both teams are projected to score under one goal each, pointing toward a tight, low-scoring affair, with 0-0 as the most likely scoreline. With only a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 32%, this match could hinge on narrow margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.72 – 0.90

Most likely score

0-0

21% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 22%

Under 78%

Both teams to score

Yes 32%

No 68%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2025 Alaves 1–0 Sociedad
Aug 2024 Sociedad 1–2 Alaves