Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

La Liga 24/25 · Wed 14 May, 19:00
Alaves
10 Full time
Valencia
Alaves 1–0 Valencia

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (32%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 32%
Away 28%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 42.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 42.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1448 v 1517 Valencia rated higher
Form Index LDWDL v WDDWW Alaves 1.0 · Valencia 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Valencia is the stronger side on Power Rating (1517 vs 1448).
  • Valencia is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Valencia
Form Index
Valencia
Goal expectation
Alaves
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Valencia. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesLDWDL1.0 ppg
ValenciaWDDWW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1448
Valencia1517
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 35% · 28%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning42% · 29% · 29%

AI match preview

Alaves and Valencia are poised for a tightly contested La Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to a draw at 32% probability. Both teams have modest expected goals, 1.02 for Alaves and 0.86 for Valencia, suggesting a low-scoring encounter, with 0-0 as the most likely scoreline. Given the low probabilities for over 2.5 goals (29%) and BTTS (39%), this match could hinge on defensive solidity; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.02 – 0.86

Most likely score

0-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 29%

Under 71%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2025 Alaves 1–0 Valencia
Dec 2024 Valencia 2–2 Alaves