Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Fri 13 Mar, 20:00
Alaves
11 Full time
Villarreal
Alaves 1–1 Villarreal

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (43%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 26%
Draw 32%
Away 43%

💡 Villarreal have a slight edge — leaning Villarreal, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 45.9/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1422 v 1580 Villarreal rated higher
Form Index LDDLL v LWWLW Alaves 0.4 · Villarreal 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alaves v Villarreal

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Why we predict this

  • Villarreal is the stronger side on Power Rating (1580 vs 1422).
  • Villarreal is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Villarreal
Form Index
Villarreal
Goal expectation
Villarreal
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Villarreal. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesLDDLL0.4 ppg
VillarrealLWWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1422
Villarreal1580
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 29% · 39%
Power Rating30% · 19% · 51%
Machine-learning9% · 60% · 31%

AI match preview

Alaves host Villarreal in a La Liga clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 43%, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 32%. Expected goals are close, with 1.29 for Alaves and 1.43 for Villarreal, making a 1-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. There’s a moderate chance of over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams scoring (57%), but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.43

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 51%

Under 49%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Alaves 1–1 Villarreal
Jan 2026 Villarreal 3–1 Alaves