Sociedad vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Sat 11 Apr, 14:00
Sociedad
33 Full time
Alaves
Sociedad 3–3 Alaves

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 21%
Away 21%

💡 Sociedad are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 68.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 68.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1524 v 1440 Sociedad rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Sociedad v Alaves

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Why we predict this

  • Sociedad is the stronger side on Power Rating (1524 vs 1440).
  • Sociedad is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sociedad
Form Index
Sociedad
Goal expectation
Sociedad
Home advantage
Sociedad

Green = favours Sociedad · Blue = favours Alaves. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SociedadWLWLW1.8 ppg
AlavesLLDWD1 ppg
Power Rating
Sociedad1524
Alaves1440
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model56% · 24% · 20%
Power Rating61% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning75% · 9% · 16%

AI match preview

Real Sociedad enter this La Liga clash with a 58% probability of securing a home win against Alaves, who share a 21% chance of either drawing or winning. The model projects an expected goals tally of 1.97 for Sociedad and 1.10 for Alaves, suggesting a competitive match with a most likely scoreline of 1-1. With both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 59%, fans can anticipate an open game, though these are statistical projections and all betting should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.10

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 59%

Under 41%

Both teams to score

Yes 59%

No 41%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Sociedad 3–3 Alaves
Dec 2025 Alaves 1–0 Sociedad