Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Tue 21 Apr, 21:30
Real Madrid
21 Full time
Alaves
Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (79%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 79%
Draw 12%
Away 9%

💡 Real Madrid are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1639 v 1445 Real Madrid rated higher
Form Index 2.0 v 1.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Real Madrid v Alaves

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Real Madrid is the stronger side on Power Rating (1639 vs 1445).
  • Real Madrid is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Real Madrid
Form Index
Real Madrid
Goal expectation
Real Madrid
Home advantage
Real Madrid

Green = favours Real Madrid · Blue = favours Alaves. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Real MadridWWWLD2.0 ppg
AlavesLDWDD1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Real Madrid1639
Alaves1445
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model72% · 19% · 9%
Power Rating72% · 12% · 16%
Machine-learning91% · 3% · 5%

AI match preview

Real Madrid enter this La Liga clash with a strong 79% probability of securing a home win against Alaves, backed by a high confidence rating of 95/100. The model projects an expected goals tally of 2.40 for Real Madrid and 0.78 for Alaves, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0, suggesting a solid defensive performance from the hosts. While there is a 62% chance of the match producing over 2.5 goals, the likelihood of both teams scoring stands at an even 50%, highlighting some uncertainty in offensive output—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.40 – 0.78

Most likely score

2-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 62%

Under 38%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Santiago Bernabeu Madrid, Spain Capacity 78,297 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves
Dec 2025 Alaves 1–2 Real Madrid