Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Sat 25 Apr, 14:00
Alaves
21 Full time
Mallorca
Alaves 2–1 Mallorca

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 29%
Away 26%

💡 Alaves have a slight edge — leaning Alaves, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1441 v 1468 Mallorca rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1441 vs 1468).
  • Mallorca is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mallorca
Form Index
Mallorca
Goal expectation
Alaves
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Mallorca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesDWDDL1.2 ppg
MallorcaWLWWD2 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1441
Mallorca1468
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model50% · 28% · 22%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning39% · 38% · 23%

AI match preview

Alaves and Mallorca face off in a La Liga clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 45%, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 29%. The expected goals suggest a moderately close game with Alaves edging it 1.57 to 0.97, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 stalemate. With both teams showing a 51% chance of scoring and under 50% for over 2.5 goals, this match could hinge on tight margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.57 – 0.97

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Alaves 2–1 Mallorca
Sept 2025 Mallorca 1–0 Alaves