Alaves vs Ath Bilbao Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Sat 2 May, 18:30
Alaves
24 Full time
Ath Bilbao
Alaves 2–4 Ath Bilbao

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 27%
Away 32%

💡 Alaves have a slight edge — leaning Alaves, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1451 v 1453 Ath Bilbao rated higher
Form Index 1.6 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1451 vs 1453).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Alaves
Goal expectation
Alaves
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Ath Bilbao. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesWDDLW1.6 ppg
Ath BilbaoWLLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1451
Ath Bilbao1453
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model48% · 29% · 24%
Power Rating46% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning48% · 25% · 27%

AI match preview

Alaves host Ath Bilbao in a La Liga clash where the home side holds a slight statistical edge with a 41% chance of victory, while a draw and away win stand at 27% and 32% respectively. The model projects a tight encounter with an expected scoreline around 1-1, reflecting closely matched offensive outputs of 1.53 and 1.01 expected goals. With both teams likely to find the net (51% BTTS) and under 2.5 goals slightly favored (53%), this game promises a competitive battle—remember, these projections are based on statistics and all betting should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.01

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Alaves 2–4 Ath Bilbao
Sept 2025 Ath Bilbao 0–1 Alaves