Alaves vs Barcelona Prediction

La Liga 25/26 · Wed 13 May, 21:30
Alaves
10 Full time
Barcelona
Alaves 1–0 Barcelona

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (48%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 22%
Draw 30%
Away 48%

💡 Barcelona are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 53.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 53.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1434 v 1746 Barcelona rated higher
Form Index 1 v 3 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Barcelona is the stronger side on Power Rating (1746 vs 1434).
  • Barcelona is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.4 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Barcelona
Form Index
Barcelona
Goal expectation
Barcelona
Home advantage
Alaves

Green = favours Alaves · Blue = favours Barcelona. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlavesDLWLD1 ppg
BarcelonaWWWWW3 ppg
Power Rating
Alaves1434
Barcelona1746
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model17% · 21% · 62%
Power Rating17% · 12% · 71%
Machine-learning1% · 74% · 25%

AI match preview

Alaves host Barcelona in a La Liga clash where the visitors hold a 48% chance of winning, according to model projections, with a draw slightly more probable than a home victory. The expected goals tally favors Barcelona at 2.35 to Alaves' 1.18, suggesting a likely 2-1 scoreline with a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability both teams will score. These insights are statistical estimates and should be considered carefully; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.18 – 2.35

Most likely score

1-2

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 69%

Under 31%

Both teams to score

Yes 64%

No 36%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Alaves 1–0 Barcelona
Nov 2025 Barcelona 3–1 Alaves